Heal the Bay Blog

July 5, 2015 — Lots of math and a sunny day at the beach.

Doesn’t sound like a match made in heaven, does it? Well, it is for our science and policy staff, who went public this week with a long-in-the-works project – a new statistical model that lets us predict beach water quality.

We’ve just taken the wraps off our “nowcasting” tool, which will allow visitors to some of Southern California’s most polluted beaches to access real-time beach water-quality data online before they hit – or don’t hit – the water.

We’ve spent the past two years working with researchers at Stanford University, who have developed, refined and validated statistical models that provide beach water-quality information similar to a daily weather forecast.

Working closely with researchers at UCLA and Stanford, Heal the Bay is overseeing a pilot program this summer that predicts good or poor water quality for the day at three beaches that have historically struggled with bacterial pollution: Doheny State Beach in Orange County, Santa Monica Beach at the Santa Monica Pier and Arroyo Burro Beach in Santa Barbara County.

The nowcasts are based on the results of predictive computer models that estimate fecal bacteria levels in the surf zone in real time, based on both water quality data (most recent samples and historic trends) and weather conditions (rain, wind and waves). The new tool is a significant improvement from current monitoring and notification methods, which can take days to complete.

Since Memorial Day, Heal the Bay has been running a multiple linear regression model for each of the three pilot beaches on a daily basis to confirm the accuracy of the predictions. Early results have been very promising, with researchers able to successfully predict three significant bacterial exceedances at Santa Monica Beach 24 hours before authorities posted warnings near the Pier.

Heal the Bay is now working directly with local government agencies to provide them nowcast data by 10 a.m. each day. By comparing these computer results to the state’s bacteria health standards, agencies can post warning notices in the morning if warranted, before most people arrive at the beach.

Swimmers at beaches riddled with bacterial pollution face a much higher risk of contracting illnesses such as stomach flu, ear infections, upper respiratory infections and skin rashes.

Starting today, ocean users can now visit www.beachreportcard.org to access the nowcasts at the three beaches. Sites are clearly marked as “good” or “poor,” depending on whether the model predicts bacterial levels will exceed state health standards.

Currently, local health agencies throughout coastal California use laboratory analyses of water samples collected at the beach to determine if it is safe for recreational use. Unfortunately, there is a long delay in this approach. It typically takes 24-48 hours to collect the samples, transport them to the lab and analyze the beach water samples. Meanwhile, water quality can change with environmental conditions and swimmers can be put at risk of illness.

In response, researchers have developed the more timely predictive model, which has been used successfully in the Great Lakes region, on the coast of Scotland and at Hong Kong beaches.

If all contiues to go well, we hope to secure future funding to expand the nowcasting model statewide next summer.

The nowcasting tool augments Heal the Bay’s Beach Report Card program, which provides A-to-F water quality grades to more than 400 beaches statewide based on weekly levels of monitored bacterial pollution.

Available online, these weekly grades have become a valuable public health tool for beachgoers all over California. The grading is important because it holds authorities accountable, and has spurred remediation efforts at dozens of chronically polluted beaches.

If you have any questions about the program, please contact Leslie Griffin, our staffer who is overseeing the initiative.

School’s out for summer… but the grades are in for California’s beaches!

The Report

• 2015 Beach Report Card
  PDF
• BeachReportCard.org

News Releases

• California
• Southern California
• Northern California

Media Coverage

• LA Times
• LA Weekly
• KNBC TV
• SF Chronicle
• KTLA TV

Californians heading to the shoreline this summer will be heartened by continued excellent water quality at beaches statewide, according our 25th annual Beach Report Card.

Heal the Bay analysts assigned A-to-F letter grades to 468 beaches along the California coast for three reporting periods in 2014-2015, based on levels of weekly bacterial pollution. Some 95% of beaches received A or B grades during the summer (April-October 2014). That figure is essentially steady with the last year’s report.

Overall, only 13 of the beaches monitored statewide received D to F grades during summer dry weather, when most beachgoers typically use the ocean. High bacteria counts at these sites are linked to potential illnesses like stomach flu, ear and upper respiratory infections and major skin rashes.

Southern California had excellent summer dry weather water quality with 97% A or B grades. Summer dry weather grades in the San Francisco Bay area (Marin County through San Mateo County) were also excellent with 93% (39 of 42) of ocean-side locations receiving A or B grades.
 
The severe drought now impacting California appears to be a major contributing factor to generally strong water quality at beaches statewide. With record low rainfall reducing the amount of polluted runoff funneled into our seas, beach grades across the state are consistently outperforming their five-year average.
 
Beach water quality grades may be higher in a given year due to less runoff, yet the resulting improved water quality may be providing a false sense of long-term beach water quality improvement. While low rainfall totals have led to significantly improved water quality statewide, it should be noted that California often swings from extended dry periods to shorter periods of intense, wet weather.
 
In response, Heal the Bay’s policy staff is advocating for a public funding measure to build infrastructure projects that capture, cleanse and reuse stormwater rather than dumping it uselessly into the sea. Progressive city planning, smart public infrastructure and so-called Low Impact Development in the private sector would turn a nuisance into a resource.
 
Nearly one in four monitored beaches in California received F grades for wet weather in the report, a figure that raises public health concerns for the state’s growing legion of year-round surfers, paddle-boarders and divers. The marked seasonal difference in water quality is why Heal the Bay recommends that ocean-users avoid the water for at least three days after a storm.
 
Heal the Bay’s annual Beach Bummer List, a ranking of the state’s 10 most polluted beaches,  is evenly split among beaches in Southern and Northern California. Cowell Beach in Santa Cruz has the dubious distinction of topping the list for a second year in a row. New entrants this year include Mission Bay at Clairmont Drive in San Diego, Candlestick Point/Sunnydale Cove in San Francisco and Huntington State Beach at Brookhurst in Orange County.
 
This Year’s Top 10 Beach Bummers

1. Cowell Beach – at the wharf (Santa Cruz County)
2. Marina del Rey – Mother’s Beach (Los Angeles County)
3. Clam Beach County Park (Humboldt County)
4. Marina Lagoon (San Mateo County)
5. Mission Bay at Clairmont Drive (San Diego County)
6. Stillwater Cove (Monterey County)
7. Candlestick Point/Sunnydale Cove (San Francisco County)
8. Santa Monica Pier (Los Angeles County)
9. Cabrillo Beach harborside (Los Angeles County
10. Huntington State Beach at Brookhurst (Orange County)

It’s not all bad news. Some 19 beaches in the state were named to Heal the Bay’s Honor Roll, meaning they were monitored year-round and scored perfect A+ grades every week of the year, regardless of dry or rainy conditions.
 
Most of the California coastline earned A grades throughout the summer reporting period. Some 94% of L.A. County beaches received A or B summer grades, a 10% increase from the county’s five-year seasonal average.  Beaches in Orange County earned summer grades of A or B at 99% of locations. San Diego County also scored very well, with 96% of it monitored sites earning A or B marks. However, both counties each placed one site on the overall Top 10 Beach Bummer List.
 
Moving up the coast, 100% beaches in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties earned A grades during the summer. Nearly nine in 10 San Luis Obispo County beaches notched A grades. Some 75% of Santa Cruz beaches scored A summer grades, but it also had two beaches receive F grades. Monterey County beaches, which had a few underperforming sites, earned 76% A or B marks in the summer.
 
Further north, 81% of San Mateo County beaches scored A grades, and were dragged down by two failing beaches during the summer reporting period. Some 78% of San Francisco locations received A or B grades for the summer in the report, slightly below its five-year summer average. Marin County and Sonoma counties each had 100% of beaches earn an A summer grade. Mendocino and Humboldt counties earned mixed grades.
 
A new model: ‘Nowcasting’ water quality

This summer Heal the Bay and Stanford University have implemented a pilot program at three beaches in Southern California to test the effectiveness of new predictive beach water-quality tools. Using sophisticated statistical models, the scientific teams are aiming to accurately predict water quality at historically troubled beaches.

Final results of pilot study are due this fall, but promising early results indicated that beach managers may be able to post a warning notice immediately at pollution-impacted beaches rather than waiting for bacteria testing, which can days to complete. These new models will protect public health by providing more timely and advanced water quality information.
 
Read the full report

June 17, 2015 — Katherine Pease, watershed scientist, reports back on Heal the Bay’s first plunge into freshwater quality testing at three local swimming spots in the Santa Monica Mountains.

Here at Heal the Bay we care deeply about water quality and public health. Our Beach Report Card has been helping beachgoers and swimmers make informed decisions for many years about where to go with their friends and family for a safe day at the beach.

But what about freshwater?

That was the question we hoped to answer last summer in a pilot project to assess usage and water quality of popular freshwater swimming holes in the Santa Monica Mountains. We selected three locations for our pilot study: the Rock Pool in Malibu Creek State Park, Las Virgenes Creek at the first bridge crossing in Malibu Creek State, and Solstice Canyon waterfall on National Park Service land.

A dedicated team of staff, interns, and volunteers visited each site approximately twice a week from the end of June to the end of September. At each visit, we recorded the number of visitors and swimmers as well as demographics of the visitors to identify communities possibly at risk and to help guide any future outreach. We collected site data (air and water temperature, amount of trash, presence of animals in the water, and water clarity, color, and smell) and a water sample, which we then processed in our laboratory to test for E. coli, and Enterococcus, two kinds of fecal indicator bacteria. Fecal indictor bacteria are not necessarily harmful themselves but they indicate the possible presence of disease-causing microorganisms. Water contaminated with these microorganisms can lead to illnesses such as gastroenteritis and upper respiratory infections as well as more serious diseases. Bacteria and other microorganisms can come from human waste (leaky or malfunctioning septic tanks, sewage leaks) as well as animal waste (dogs, horses, birds) that enter the waterbody directly or through runoff.

Since this was only a pilot project, we didn’t have the ability to share our results immediately with the public. But after several months of data analysis and number crunching, we’re able to reveal some key findings in the table below:

Unfortunately, we found high levels of fecal indictor bacteria, particularly in Las Virgenes Creek and at the Rock Pool. At Las Virgenes Creek, 61% of the samples were over the limit for Enterococcus, while 28% of the samples were over the limit for E. coli. At Rock Pool, 22% of the samples were over the limit for Enterococcus, while 11% of the samples were over the limit for E. coli. At Solstice Canyon, 10% of the samples were over the limit for Enterococcus, while none of the samples were over the limit for E. coli.

Read our full study report here, which also includes information on how to get involved with the Stream Team volunteer corps.

In conclusion, we found that there are likely public health risks at popular swimming spots in the Santa Monica Mountains, particularly in Malibu Creek State Park. Based on our observations, the community most at risk is the Hispanic community and particularly families at Las Virgenes Creek. There is a need for bilingual signage, education, and outreach so that at a minimum, all visitors can be informed that there is a potential risk to swim in Las Virgenes Creek and Rock Pool. We plan to meet with staff from LA County Department of Public Health, State Parks, and the National Park Service to discuss our results and advocate for public health protection. We hope to continue monitoring water quality this summer to determine whether the trends stay consistent.

On a personal level, I was struck by the interest and excitement of the public in what we were doing. Visitors were curious to know if the water was safe to swim in. I had one memorable conversation with a man from North Hollywood who was visiting Rock Pool for the first time. He watched us carefully for a bit, then asked what we were doing. He was there with his family, including a young daughter. That morning when they arrived at the swimming hole, his daughter asked him who makes sure the water is safe and OK to swim in. He didn’t know the answer. So, when he saw us there, he was happy to see that someone was testing the water and thanked us profusely.

While the results from the pilot are indeed concerning, we’re reluctant to completely discourage people from swimming at the three sampling sites. Rather, we advocate using caution and common sense if you choose to take a dip at a local swimming hole:

• Don’t swallow any water.
• Avoid swimming if you have any cuts or sores.
• After taking a dip, be sure to shower with soap. 

And, of course…there are always the beaches! Check the Beach Report Card for the latest water quality grades at your favorite beach, and we’ll continue our work on improving water quality across the Santa Monica Bay–in both fresh and ocean water.  

An idyllic scene from Rock Pool in Malibu Creek State Park

Heal the Bay’s Dana Murray is selected for special training to help clean up spilled oil in Santa Barbara. Here’s her first report:

May 29, 2015 — It’s not every day that you get trained to become a certified oil spill clean-up worker. But that’s what I did yesterday in Santa Barbara. I will return to remove oil from the seashore on Sunday.  About 75 people participated in the four-hour training, which the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) conducted.

Many concerned citizens have been clamoring to roll up their sleeves and help with clean-up. But given the safety and health issues involved, it’s a bit more complicated than just showing up on the sand. The volunteer program is tightly managed.

My fellow volunteers ranged in age, hometowns and environmental experience. We got a crash course in the chemistry and physics of the spilled San Ardo crude, which comes from an area north of Paso Robles. We also received a drill-down on proper equipment, clothing, safety procedures and the personal decontamination process. Hazmat suit here I come!

After the training, I spoke with oil spill response coordinators about Heal the Bay partnering with any volunteer cleanup efforts in L.A. (so we are prepped to do that if needed/allowed). After several security checks, I was escorted through the Unified Command Central, which is the nerve center of spill response. The command post is a very impressive operation with hundreds of agency personnel on their computers and phones, studying maps and what-not.

I offered to help transport oiled wildlife down to San Pedro if needed, and the CDFW and Oiled Wildlife Care Network tasked me to transport animals to L.A. for treatment. Unfortunately, private security was so tight at Refugio and El Capitan, I wasn’t allowed to drive down to the beaches to do the wildlife pickup — even with permission from state agencies. No volunteers were being allowed any access yesterday, only staff with badges. Pretty frustrating.

Instead, I did a little reconnaissance of cleanup operations along the coast. Beach access points are all closed and privately guarded from Sands Beach/Isla Vista to north of Refugio. From afar I could see oil in the ocean, on the rocks, and a handful of boats and booms trying to skim the water. My day done, it was time to head back to the office in Santa Monica.

I’ll be back to help clean up in earnest on Sunday. I will report back soon.

         Ships conduct cleanup operations in tightly controlled Refugio Cove.